Africa in 2025 (Part I)

By Fidel Amakye Owusu

With the highest number of countries in the world, being the second-largest continent, and with a diverse sociocultural landscape, the security dynamics in Africa remain one of the most complex.

The year 2024 was a difficult one for the continent in terms of terrorism, human trafficking, political stability, great power competition and concomitant scramble for resources, drug trafficking, and inter-state frictions.

Despite these challenges, elections in Senegal, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, and Ghana have shown some promise. Economically, several countries are posting impressive figures. Many of these are driven by resource extraction.

And so, what?

While no tectonic shift is expected in 2025 regarding regional dynamics, there are many factors to look out for in the coming year. There are going to be at least 12 elections across Africa. Also, security dynamics remain fluid.

In West Africa, 2025 is likely to have junta-led countries dominating the headlines. With the respective juntas not providing timelines for transitions they earlier promised, civilians and mainstream politicians are likely to hit the streets. There are signals of that happening in Guinea and Mali. Burkina Faso and Niger are not far from this.

Elections to monitor in the region will be in Cote d’Ivoire and Togo. Despite some impressive economic performance, the largest exporter of the cocoa bean has had a delicate political climate. This makes its next elections crucial. Similarly, despite some stability in Togo over the past decades, government-opposition relations remain tense.

In West Africa, 2025 is likely to have junta-led countries dominating the headlines. With the respective juntas not providing timelines for transitions they earlier promised, civilians and mainstream politicians are likely to hit the streets. There are signals of that happening in Guinea and Mali. Burkina Faso and Niger are not far from this.

Economically, Senegal, as reported, is going to experience significant growth with the start of gas production from its offshore basin.

Coastal states will need to prioritize their security as extremists from the Sahel threaten to be more active in the Savannah zone of the region. This means their northern territories are within the reach of JNIM and ISGS. These groups are already exploiting illicit economies in the zone and beyond.

In Central Africa, elections in Burundi, Cameroon, CAR, and Gabon will not escape the attention of observers. Interestingly, each of these states has domestic security dynamics that make the conducting of elections a sensitive process.

Cameroon has macabre activities of secessionists in the west happening together with extremism in the north. Gabon is undergoing a transition after its first successful coup after independence. The CAR is in the middle of civil tensions characterized by overwhelming foreign presence and significant ungoverned space. Burundi is known for recurring political instability.

Despite the importance of these elections, the DRC remains the most critical space to observe in 2025. With rebels making gains and the incumbent president signaling possible changes to the constitution to stay on, the largest country in the region will dominate the headlines.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is an International Relations and Security Analyst. He is an Associate at the Conflict Research Consortium for Africa and has previously hosted an International Affairs program with the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation (GBC). He is passionate about Diplomacy and realizing Africa’s global potential and how the continent should be viewed as part of the global collective.