AfCFTA: From Vision to Reality – It’s Time to Deliver

By Danilo Desiderio

Four years after its historic launch, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) remains a promise more than a practice. Conceived as the most ambitious economic integration project in Africa’s history – linking 1.4 billion people across 55 nations into a US$3.4 trillion single market – the initiative has generated headlines, high-level pledges, and hopeful rhetoric.

Yet tangible progress on the ground tells a different story: implementation is patchy, hesitant, and increasingly at risk of stalling.

The Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), launched in October 2022 as a pilot to test AfCFTA’s operational mechanics, was meant to be a catalyst – not a crutch. Initially involving eight countries and later expanded to include economic heavyweights like Nigeria and South Africa, the GTI aimed to identify bottlenecks, refine customs protocols, and generate actionable insights for continent-wide rollout.

But there’s a growing danger that this temporary experiment could morph into a semi-permanent holding pattern. As one East African legislator aptly warned: “Africa is notorious for transitional periods that become permanent.”

Without decisive action, the GTI may become a symbol of delay rather than a springboard for delivery.

The truth is, AfCFTA has moved beyond the era of declarations. The political will exists.

The legal architecture is largely in place. What’s missing is execution – the hard, unglamorous work of making trade actually happen.

Tariffs Are Just the Starting Point

Recent assessments, including a new report from the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) and earlier findings from the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (2024), converge on a critical insight: tariff liberalization alone won’t unlock AfCFTA’s potential. While reducing duties is essential, the real barriers to integration are non-tariff in nature – fragmented regulations, weak productive capacity, inadequate infrastructure, and logistical inefficiencies that inflate costs and erode competitiveness.

Take Ghana, Nigeria, and Mauritius – three GTI participants whose experiences reveal systemic challenges. Port congestion, inconsistent customs clearance, and poor air and sea connectivity have hampered even modest trade flows under the pilot.

These aren’t isolated glitches; they reflect a continent-wide infrastructure deficit that stifles the emergence of regional value chains. Until African nations invest not just in roads and rails, but in digital trade platforms, multimodal logistics corridors, and harmonized regulatory systems, AfCFTA will remain a paper tiger.

Institutional Readiness: The Missing Backbone

Equally critical is institutional readiness. Early GTI implementation exposed alarming gaps: customs officials unfamiliar with AfCFTA procedures, underfunded national committees, and widespread inability to issue certificates of origin – the very documents that enable preferential trade.

Without interoperable digital systems and robust inter-agency coordination across trade ministries, standards bodies, and border agencies, even the best-designed policies will gather dust.

A Strategic Window in a Fracturing Global Economy

Yet amid these challenges lies opportunity. Global economic uncertainty – fueled by geopolitical fragmentation, potential U.S. tariff shocks, and volatile supply chains – offers Africa a strategic opening.

By accelerating intra-African trade, the continent can insulate itself from external volatility, diversify its growth engines, and build resilient, homegrown value chains anchored in continental demand.

The GTI must not become a comfort zone. It should serve as a laboratory – rapidly testing, learning, and scaling what works.

The next phase of AfCFTA demands more than pilot projects; it requires political courage, coordinated investment, and a relentless focus on delivery.

Africa has committed to integration. Now, it must deliver on it. The vision is clear. The time for action is now.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).