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Barbados elections update: Latest poll suggests that Opposition BLP will win
Opposition Leader Owen Arthur (l) and incumbent Barbados Prime Minister Freundel Stuart. PHOTO/File
The opposition Barbados Labor Party (BLP) of Owen Arthur, is likely to win as many as 20 seats in Thursday’s general elections, according to the latest opinion poll published on Tuesday.
The poll which was conducted by the Caribbean Development Research Services Inc. (CADRES), reveals that the BLP, could win between 17 and 20 of the 30 seats to be contested in the general elections, Thursday.
Results of the poll also reveal that the incumbent Democratic Labor Party (DLP) headed by Prime Minister Freundel Stuart “will occupy the opposition benches with between 10 and 13 seats.”
Last weekend CADRES published a poll in which it said that voters had preferred Prime Minister Stuart to lead the country as against Arthur by a 39 to 36 percent. “On this occasion, Stuart’s approval rating has risen from 39 to 41 percent while Arthur’s has remained constant at exactly 37 percent.
The disapproval ratings for both leaders have increased marginally with Stuart’s moving from 40 to 41 percent and Arthur’s moving from 38 to 41 percent. In both instances the movement came from the uncommitted cohort which is somewhat smaller for both leaders.”
The DLP, which had been trailing the opposition for the past several months, had narrowed the gap to a statistical dead heat, according to the results of first poll released over the last weekend.
The main noteworthy comparative observation is that the BLP was leading in the polls one week ago and continues to lead on this occasion and appears to have widened its lead. It is also clear to CADRES that this will be one of the most marginal and indeed competitive campaigns ever endured in this island-nation’s history.
“This marginality is evidenced by the fact that a shift of four to five percent in support over the last week has resulted in a presumptive loss of five more seats for the DLP.
CADRES has repeatedly made the point that this DLP government appears strong in terms of numbers but is in reality comparatively weaker than any other first term government that the DLP has had previously.
“As such the slightest deterioration in support will have a devastating impact on seats. It is against this background that CADRES has argued that the party better organized on Election Day in all of the marginal marginal ridings has what would be called a better “fighting chance” to win those “seats”.
This latest CADRES poll was conducted during the week February 15-18 and reflected public opinion in the second week of the campaign. – (CMC)