Politics
Barbados election update: DLP and BLP in statistical dead hit – latest poll
Opposition Leader Owen Arthur (l) and incumbent Barbados Prime Minister Freundel Stuart. PHOTO/File
The two main political parties here are in a statistical dead heat ahead of Thursday’s general election with voters in Barbados giving the nod to Prime Minister Freundel Stuart over his main challenger, Owen Arthur, according to the latest opinion poll published here on Sunday.
The poll by the Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES), published in the Sunday Sun newspaper however indicates that Arthur’s Barbados Labor Party (BLP) still hold a “slight edge” for control of the 30 seats in the parliament.
It said that the BLP had a 37 percent favorable rating as against 34 percent for the ruling Democratic Labor Party (DLP) with 29 percent of the voters either not giving an indication of how they will vote on Thursday or did not know which party would most likely win nationally.
The poll has a margin of error of minus or plus five percent, indicated however that “the actual outcome of this election is therefore dependent on the behavior of this “uncertain vote” adding that two possible scenarios emerge, which could be revealed in the new poll which is currently under way”.
The poll found that Stuart, who headed the government after the death of then prime minister David Thompson in 2011, had a three per cent lead over Arthur, who is seeking to regain control of the government he lost in 2008.
According to the pollsters, Stuart is liked by 39 percent of the electorate as compared with 36 percent for Arthur.
The poll showed that the DLP had been able to narrow a 6 percent lead the BLP enjoyed last September to a mere 3.4 percent, meaning that Thursday’s general elction “is expected to go down to the wire”.
But CARDES is still predicting victory for the BLP and suggesting that despite the late surge by the ruling party, the marginal lead currently enjoyed by the BLP should be sufficient for it to produce the weakest of governments if the trend holds.
The poll conducted last weekend in all 30 constituencies, found that on the issue of whether this was the time for a change of government, 38.9 percent said yes while 40.5 percent said no with uncommitted, comprising of those who have not yet made up their minds or would not say which party the would be voting for, accounting for 20.6 percent.
CADRES pollster Peter Wuickham said the survey showed the electorate was sending a strong signal that leadership was an issue and that while people still had reservations about the ruling party, they were becoming more comfortable with the DLP’s leadership.
“Overall uncommitted voters, standing at 33 percent, will play a big role in Thursday’s vote with the size on this occasion being the lowest historically in any CADRES poll.”
But Wickham said that based on the swing analysis, the DLP could get a larger share of the uncommitted voters but still lose narrowly.
The Sunday Sun newspaper quoted Wickham as saying however if the uncommitted voters behave characteristically “this time and the BLP got a larger share, it would not only win the election, but with a comfortable majority.” – (CMC)