Part II: Why Obama Will Win in November 2012
In June this year, I made the sanguine prediction that Obama would keep his job as America’s president for a second term.
This prognosis was based on three presumptions: First, that the number of jobs being created would not go back to their low of 70,000 created in that period. Since then, American companies have hired more than 100,000 people per month while the Republicans have, on the sidelines, harangued and snapped at Obama heels with criticism that he is still not doing enough. Secondly, I argued that most Americans are able to see through the coded expressions Republicans use in their adverts and messages to their followers – dog whistles in this case – when referring to Obama and his administration. Terms like ‘Food Stamp President’ or ‘Welfare’, basically appeal to white voters who ‘think’ that food stamps are basically a staple of black people who are, supposedly, lazy and dependent on the government teat!
More on this later … However, the last reason for a potential Obama victory then rested on the fact that Republicans always manage to overreach and thus, manage to turn off those American voters who are neither Republican nor Democrat simply because they subscribe to some part of both ideologies.
For this part two, I will, without trying to redeem Part 1, show that there’s even more compelling evidence that while Mitt Romney successfully wrested his party’s nomination from the unforgiving hands of Rep. Ron Paul this past August, the party gunning for the White House is striving to attract new voters needed to tip the balance in their favor.
At the Republican Convention last week, the ever so precious Latino vote was seductively teased with the nominal Latinos in power; the women were spoken to directly by the candidate’s wife and by a gaggle of powerful conservative women – and there was even the token black guy speaking to a party he had just been invited into. But the gallant efforts of Artur Davis, Ann Romney or Susana Martinez may not necesssarily translate into cake for Mitt Romney to eat while at the White House.
There are two reasons for this – but first, the American people were probably not buying what the Republicans were selling as reflected in the lack of post convention bounce. Contrast this with the bounce Sen. John McCain received when he and the infamous Sarah Palin were nominated to office. Even the conservatives agree that this bounce thing is a case of sadness! And as if this lack of a bounce was not enough, Paul Ryan who was supposed to energize the conservative base and also woo independent voters was caught in a whopping number of untruths – basically channeling canards in his prime time vice presidential nominee address!
Secondly, there’s an element of timing. Just like happened in 1996 when Bob Dole held his convention before Bill Clinton’s, Obama’s convention can only do everything it can to outdo the Mitt Romney party. Basically, the fact that Mitt Romney did not give Obama a bloody nose out of his convention is a testament not to how strong Obama is as a candidate but to how weak – to the chagrin of the conservative movement – Mr. Romney is.
The Republicans cannot understand why the American public love Obama who, according to Republican folklore, is the epitome of Manchurian candidates – one who responds to Karl Marx and other socialist exemplars. In contradistinction, this fascination America has with Obama gives the 44th President an opening to address the falsehoods Republicans tell about him. It is also very interesting that a leading conservative news source is, finally, telling the true story of America’s debt. From an outsider’s perspective, this might seem like a small story. But to those in the know, a story about who truly holds America’s debt on Fox News is more or less a mea culpa!
[And as I write this editorial at 10:21 pm on Tuesday September 4, 2012, there's a speaker called Julian Castro - San Antonio, Texas' speech to the Democratic Convention. Read this transcript and see what this conservative source says about Mr. Castro. If Obama was electric in 2004, this Castro man is walking in the middle of a current].
The other even more seminal reason for an Obama victory in 2012 rests in the Electoral College votes. Different from the popular vote, a person can become president of the U.S.A simply by winning electoral votes. George W. Bush lost the popular vote and still won the presidency by winning more electoral votes than Al Gore in 2000. Obama is in the enviable position of having more electoral votes than Mitt Romney right now. According to a conservative news outlet, Obama has 221 votes over Mitt Romney’s 191. Mitt Romney’s path to the White House is made even more difficult from the standpoint that even if the President loses Florida, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina to Mr. Romney – a total of 76 electoral votes – Mitt Romney will still fall short of the requisite 270.
Obama would just need to win Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota – just 57 votes as a total. And for the record, Mitt Romney will not win all 4 of those major states while Obama may as well win these last 6 states. The path to a Republican Presidency is, in simple terms, riddled with barbs and bleakness.
To Be Continued in Part III where an argument will be made about how conservative media was trapped into shooting itself in the foot.
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